Transnational Organized Crime (TOC)

10-12 pages – Chicago Style with End Notes

Writing Assignment Guidance for Your AO Paper

For those of you who are gifted at writing: I’d like to see an Intro-Body-Conclusion with excellent logic. Illustrate an AO model with the Shell 2-axes model yielding alternate environments and appropriate strategies. Also, include a discussion on Ends-Ways-Means with Means described as capabilities not platforms.

The most important element of this paper is your analysis of how to solve your unique 2-2-2-1 problem.

For everyone else here’s some further guidance:

1. Put your thesis up front. Ensure it poses/argues a position.

2. Be clear/straight forward in setting the stage:

• “This analysis for this paper on (insert your state/non-state actor) is based on the Ascher-Overholt (AO) Model.” (Endnote)
• “To generate the four environments/scenarios for the AO Model, this analysis/study/examination uses a modification of the Shell two-axes generation model and used x and y as the axes.” (Endnote).
• Assume that I have some working knowledge about the AO model and the Shell two axes model.

3. Interests

• Define and prioritize US interests with respect to your state/non-state actor
• Define and prioritize your state/non-state actor’s interests.
• With these interests defined, specify the US strategic objective(s).

4. Scenario Generation for 2035

• Describe distinct scenarios/environments and what is common at the core. Only go into detail/paint the narrative on two of the four environments: “Likely/Alternative” and “Preferred.”
• Write the scenario/environment as is – do not try to describe “how” the scenario/environment developed.
• No need for branches or sequels in the scenario/environment.
• The scenario/environment should be relatively a steady state
• Write the scenario/environment in the present tense: “Japan avoids confrontation over its disputed islands with the Russian Federation through a strategy of …”
• Describe the particular scenario/environment with the variables in the axes to enable you to compare and contrast the two scenarios/environments you choose.
• Paint enough of the image to describe how other things are going on in the scenario/environment: internal stability, government type (oligarchy, kleptocracy, autarky…), economy (stable, hyper-inflation), etc.
• If you are going to use a country/nation state as comparison, be exact as possible. Saying a country is democratic like the US would mean that is a hegemon with a first class military that attacks other countries to protect its national interests.
• A crisis within a scenario/environment is more than likely an exogenous event.

5. Portfolio of Defense Strategies

• Have a core strategy with ends (objectives) and the DoD/military ways and means – what capabilities will the US need in 2035 to achieve its security objectives in the core environment. Do NOT be platform specific – that is a task for next semester, do explain capabilities needed.
• Have a basic strategy with ends (objectives) and the DoD/military ways and means – what capabilities will the US need in 2035 to achieve is security objectives in the preferred environment, do explain capabilities needed. Again, do NOT be platform specific.
• Have a hedging strategy with ends (objectives) and the DoD/military ways and means – what capabilities will the US need in 2035 to achieve is security objectives in the preferred environment and likely/alternative environment. Yes, do NOT be platform specific.

6. Recommendations Section

A recommendations section is a great addition, it’s a good avenue to display your analysis.

7. Format/Mechanics

• Follow the ES Student Writing Guide. I expect to see a title page and the SafeAssign link sent to me.
• Keep your paper to 10 pages of text. If it trickles over to page 11, no big deal, but if goes to 12 pages of text, that will certainly cause a sigh of exasperation and thoughts of drinking to block the pain.
• Indent block quotes on the LEFT and RIGHT margin. A rule of thumb is to block quote anything over 50 words. If you have over two or three blocks quotes, I’m thinking you are missing a great chance for me to read your analysis. I’m looking for your thought, not somebody else’s.
• Endnotes – please follow the Chicago Manual of Style.
• Use reputable sources. Wikipedia is often a great start to find a source; however, most academics frown upon its use as a source itself. I recommend that you don’t cite Wikipedia articles in your paper.
• Primary sources are always a bonus. However, I realize they may not be available for your particular state/non-state actor. However, I would certainly give you big points if you managed to get a one on one interview with a Mexican drug kingpin, Mr. Putin, Mr. Kim Jong-un, the Grand Ayatollah…
• Use section titles (and if you think, appropriate, subsection titles) for each of your paper. At a minimum, I would expect your paper to have the following major sections – what you label the section is up to you:
• Intro
• Interests
• 2035 Scenarios/Environments
• Portfolio of Defense Strategies (Core, Basic, Hedging)
• Recommendations
• Conclusion 8. Graphs/Pictures. I expect at least one picture/graph of your two axes model. How you put this in or include it in your paper/document is up to you. The picture/graph can be included within the text of your paper (will not count against your page count, just estimate how many text lines it takes) OR as an appendix at the end of the paper OR you can include it as a separate PowerPoint file OR neatly drawn and scanned into a separate PDF file. If you need to cite your sources for your picture/graph, do so. I’m looking for a basic chart that has the essential elements – not a Rembrandt.